Incrementality 101
What Incrementality Is and Why It Matters
In a world focused on attribution and quick wins, there’s a deeper question we often overlook:
Is this effort actually driving results or just getting the credit?
That‘s the heart of incrementality.
Incrementality helps us see the true impact of our efforts. It’s not just about whether ads perform, it’s about whether they’re driving outcomes that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.
So, What Is Incrementality?
At its core, incrementality measures the additional value driven by a specific action. It asks: What would have happened without this investment? What actually happened with it? And how do those compare?
Rather than relying solely on attribution (which tends to reward what's easiest to track), incrementality helps us separate true lift from what might have occurred anyway - like organic purchases, repeat buyers, or built-in demand.
It’s the difference between capturing revenue and creating it.
Why Is This Important?
If you're serious about growth, incrementality isn't optional. It's essential.
Clarity:
You stop mistaking correlation for causation.
Without incrementality, it's easy to overvalue channels that sit closest to the conversion and undervalue those that create demand earlier in the journey. Incrementality helps clarify what’s actually creating value through the full path to purchase.
Efficiency:
You invest in what truly works.
When you lack incremental insight, budgets tend to flow toward what's easy to track—not what actually moves the needle. That leads to wasted spend and missed opportunity. With incrementality, your dollars go further because they support net new growth.
Scale:
You grow from a stronger foundation.
Without it, growth stalls as lower-funnel audiences get saturated. With it, you can identify new opportunities that expand your customer base and build sustainable momentum.
Bottom line: Without incrementality, you risk overvaluing tactics that piggyback on natural customer behavior and undervaluing the ones that actually make an impact.
How Do You Measure It?
There’s no single solution for measuring incrementality. Most brands use a mix of methods depending on media mix, data access, and budget. Here are a few common approaches:
Geo Holdout Testing: Run campaigns in one region and hold out another as a control. Compare results to understand lift.
Pros: Real-world results. Doesn’t rely on user-level tracking. Great for large regional investments.
Cons: Requires scale and clean regional splits. Sensitive to external factors.
Best For: Broad investments with clear geographic performance controls among brands who can afford a temporary drop in performance.
Matched Market Testing: Identify comparable markets and run a test in one while holding out in the other.
Pros: Adds rigor to geo testing while helping control for variability.
Cons: Requires effort to match markets. Still exposed to outside noise.
Best For: National brands building structured test-and-learn programs.
Audience Split Testing: Divide users into test and control groups. Serve media only to the test group and measure the difference.
Pros: Highly flexible in terms of audience definitions/KPIs.
Cons: Can require more advanced ad tech and/or may be limited to existing customers.
Best For: Measuring incrementality against existing customers.
Platform Lift Studies: Many platforms (like Meta, Google, and Amazon) offer built-in incrementality or conversion lift studies—use these when available, but interpret them with a balanced perspective.
Pros: Easy to run. Automated audience splits. Built-in statistical confidence.
Cons: Limited visibility into methodology. Can’t compare across platforms.
Best For: Supplementing other methods with specific insights that empower platform level decision making.
Media Mix Modeling (MMM): Statistical modeling using historical data to estimate channel impact.
Pros: Doesn’t require user-level data. Great for long-term planning and cross-channel insights.
Cons: Requires a lot of clean data and strong statistical support. Costly to build and maintain.
Best For: Mature brands with broad media mix and long time horizons.
Time Based Pre/Post Testing: Run media in one time window, pause in another, and compare.
Pros: Simple to execute.
Cons: No true control. High risk of seasonality or external influence.
Best For: Quick checks for early-stage channels or pilots.
Things to Watch Out For
Attribution vs. Incrementality: Attribution shows where credit is assigned. Incrementality shows whether anything should be credited.
Lagging Indicators: Some results take time—make sure your measurement windows account for this.
Testing Fatigue: Don’t test everything at once. Be intentional with what you isolate and learn from.
Statistical Significance: Without enough data or time, results can be misleading and falsely interpreted - leading you in the wrong direction.
Making Incrementality Part of Your Strategy
Start simple. Use platform lift tests to validate key channels. Run a geo test before scaling a new partner. Build the habit of asking:
“Would this have happened anyway?”
Shift your mindset from volume to value. It’s not just about driving more—it’s about driving more that matters.
Final Thought
Incrementality isn’t just a measurement tactic—it’s a mindset shift. It invites you to look beyond surface-level success and into what’s actually helping your business grow.
In an industry that often rewards activity over impact, asking the harder question - “Did this really move the needle?” - can be your most powerful strategic edge.